Saturday 28 March 2009

Will the G20 summit achieve anything?


This week will see the leaders of the G20 descend upon London. The hope is, that they will come to a global agreement to help resolve the world economic slump.

Sadly, the chances of this happening are about as low as Peter Mandelson defecting to the Tories and becoming David "call me Dave" Cameron's right hand man.

The main stumbling block appears to be the need for governments to be seen to be doing the best for their country. As a result, free trade is inevitably being hit hard, and protectionism is blossoming.

Our Prime Minister Gordon "call me Gordon" Brown, has been frantically crossing the globe this week in an effort to convince leaders that they need to pump more money into their economies.

Brown also wants them to up their levels of foreign trade, but this will be a big ask, even for the silver tongued Brown. For too long many countries have had a perception of our PM as someone who loved to lecture others, on how they should run their economies.

This was all too apparent when Brown spoke in Brussels this week. The chamber was only a quarter full and the biggest news to come out of his visit was the attack from a Conservative MEP, Daniel Hannan.

People do not like being lectured, and Brown may now be reaping what he has sown. During the boom years, he was happy to take the plaudits and dish out advice, but now things have turned sour he is less willing to admit his failings.

Brown's favourite phrase at the moment is "fiscal stimulus" but the problem is, the UK may not be able to afford another one. This is a big problem if you are trying to convince other countries that it is a great idea.

Indeed, Mervyn King's words to the Treasury Select Committee this week appear to have confirmed this worry. King said:

"I think the fiscal position in the UK is not one where we could say, 'well, why don't we just engage in another significant round of fiscal expansion'."

For the Governor of the Bank of England to say this as the Prime Minister is looking to launch another fiscal stimulus, it was unlikely to be unrehearsed.

If King is worried about overstretching the British economy, then we should all be worried. One must remember that Keynesian economics are not fool-proof and spending your way out of a recession is an extremely risky business.

Brown has called the Conservatives a "do nothing party" for months now, and laughed at their caution towards hefty fiscal measures, but now it appears they are not alone in having doubts.

The European Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso warned this week against a second EU stimulus plan, and it should be considered that the initial rounds of demestic stimulus packages will take months to have any real effect.

It should be said though, that King's words do not endorse Conservative economic policy as David Cameron tried to suggest. They do however give the Tories more authority, something they have been lacking when talking about the economy, up til now.

Brown seems worried about doing nothing, or at least being seen to be doing nothing. Indeed, one could argue that by introducing fresh economic measures every week is not achieving anything, in terms of helping people in the real world.

The measures that have already been implemented need to be given time to take effect, and by continually introducing more and more schemes, the government could be perceived as being in a bit of a panic.

New Labour created an idea of an all-providing state, but with the economy faltering this could ultimately be their undoing.

When things get really bad, people will begin to look towards the government, but it is unlikely that they will be able to solve most people's problems.

The state cannot always provide, and the enlargement of the welfare state under New Labour has created a culture of people who feel they are owed something.

In the US, Barack Obama warned against this kind of expectation in his inauguration speech when he said:

"For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies."

Governments can only do so much in crises such as the one the world finds itself in today, and it will have to be a huge collective effort that gets us through it.

The G20 summit has been built up massively by Gordon Brown, but anyone expecting a global solution from it may be disappointed.

Of course we are all hoping for a miracle, and no-one more so than Gordon Brown; the man who appears to have gambled his political future on securing a quick fix to this global problem.

2 comments:

  1. "New Labour created an idea of an all-providing state"

    has it? never heard that said before by labout, tories, press etc. is this your idea? what do you mean by it?

    ReplyDelete
  2. What did the US achieve at the G20 summit? Aside from renewing US commitment to a better relationship with the European nations and the rest of the International Community?

    ReplyDelete